Time to
Reclaim Macedonia
By Victor Bivell
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version
The outbreak of military hostilities in northern
Macedonia this year is the first "hot war" episode
in a longer "demographic war" between Macedonians
and Albanians that has been brewing in Macedonia
since the 1960s. History and current models of multiculturalism
both show that when two large ethnic groups occupy
the same space, conflict and or separation are inevitable.
Opinions are mixed among Macedonians as to how the
Macedonian Government has handled the crisis so far.
For my own part, I have three concerns:
1. The Macedonian Army failed the win a short and
decisive military victory against the insurgents.
2. The Macedonian Government has not sought help
from the large and very interested diaspora at a
time crucial for the existence of Macedonia.
3. Both the present and previous Government have
failed to develop a policy to reverse the rapid increase
in the Albanian proportion of the Macedonian population,
a trend which lies at the heart of this undeclared
war.
When the insurgents entered Macedonia from Kosovo
and were joined by some local Albanians, the international
community gave the Macedonian Government a clear
signal of support for a short, sharp, decisive military
victory. Had the Army delivered such a victory, the
insurgency would now be history.
Most unfortunately, the Government and the Army
failed to deliver. Then, in a suspiciously short
period of time, Macedonia lost the backing of the
EU and NATO for a military solution. We can speculate
as to why, and I think there are at least two relevant
factors.
Instead of seeing a quick and clean end to the terrorists,
the world saw many thousands of civilians leaving
for Kosovo to avoid the line of fire, and at a time
when NATO and the EU in particular have no more stomach
for refugees from former Yugoslavia.
As it became clear that the Macedonian Army lacked
the strategy and wherewithal for guerilla warfare
and could not prevail easily with its artillery strategy,
the attitude of NATO and the EU changed to one of
taking the path of least resistance. As always in
politics, any power will respect strength and the
side that can deliver. NATO and the EU have found
it easier to bully the Macedonian Government than
to bully the terrorists. NATO and the EU seek only
a solution and seem not to particularly care at what
cost to Macedonia. Thus we have the national humiliation
of Macedonia having to negotiate away parts of its
sovereignty and even its "Macedonian-ness" with,
indirectly but in fact, Albanian invaders and murderers.
The lesson is that strength works. On the two occasions
when the Macedonian people have made their feelings
plain, they were quickly given something for their
effort. In less than two days after the people demonstrated
en masse in front of parliament, US president George
Bush issued his list of banned Albanians and promised
to halt the flow of Albanian-American money to the
terrorists. (Although we should not dismiss the possibility
that this was a quid pro quo for the capitulation
at Arachinovo.) On the second occasion, after the
Macedonian Government threatened an all-out assault
and the people demonstrated outside Western embassies
against the ethnic cleansing by the terrorists, NATO
quickly brokered an agreement for the terrorists
to withdraw to the positions they held at the start
of the present cease-fire.
This is how "real politik" seems to work.
It is not too late to show strength. But the Macedonian
people, both inside and outside of Macedonia, must
ask the hard questions:
1. Why was the Army not fully prepared for the insurgency?
2. Why does the Army not have specially trained
and equipped units that can fully secure Macedonia's
borders?
3. Why does the Army not have specially trained
and equipped anti-guerrilla warfare units that can
stop the terrorists and end the insurgency? 4. Why
are the Macedonian police not able to capture
the "Albanian mafia" and stop their criminal
activities that are reported to be behind the terrorists'
activities?
If it is to survive in a form that Macedonians can
recognize, Macedonia must obtain these competencies
as soon as possible, and, in the case of anti-guerrilla
warfare, be prepared to act decisively at the first
opportunity.
"Demographic War" It is also imperative
that Macedonians tackle the real issue: the longer
term "demographic war" between Macedonians
and Albanians that will decide who will form the
majority group and eventually control Macedonia.
The Macedonian Government must formulate a policy
that addresses this issue in a way that both preserves
Macedonia as a homeland for the Macedonians and is
acceptable internationally.
As no policy on this has ever been forthcoming by
any Macedonian Government, I have taken the liberty
of writing such as policy myself, titled Stabilizing
Relations Between Ethnic Macedonians and Ethnic Albanians
in Macedonia. This discussion
paper was published in Nova Makedonija.
The paper presents a range of internationally acceptable
policy options for reversing the trend that has seen
the Albanian proportion of the population rise from
13 per cent in 1961 to 22.7 per cent in 1994, while
at the same time the proportion of Macedonians fell
from 71.2 per cent in 1961 to 66.6 per cent in 1994.
While Macedonians were busy leaving Macedonia during
the 1970s and 80s, Albanians from Kosovo were busy
coming in. It is this dramatic change in demographics
that has made possible the current insurgency and
uprising.
Here is a clear example of the expression "politics
is a numbers game". If Macedonians wish to keep "Macedonia
for the Macedonians", we need to play this numbers
game and win.
There are more than enough Macedonians around the
world to re-assert the Macedonian right to control
Macedonia. The problem is that more than half, on
a conservative basis at least 1.5 million, live outside
of Macedonia compared to 1.3 million inside Macedonia.
It would go a long way towards solving the demographic
problem if it were possible to some how pick up the
Thomastown-Lalor-Epping region of Melbourne and place
it between Tetovo and Gostivar. Likewise with the
Macedonian part of Toronto, and for a number of other
parts of the world.
Of course, this is not possible physically, and
would be difficult socially, but it illustrates that
Macedonia has more than adequate resources in terms
of people, capital and talent.
There are many ways to tap these resources. One
key strategy is the need to reverse the century old
trend of Macedonians leaving Macedonia in search
of a "better life": be it leaving ethnographic
Macedonia for political freedom and economic opportunity,
or, as in the 1970s to 1990s, leaving the Republic
of Macedonia for economic reasons. Once these people
leave and settle elsewhere, Macedonia loses not just
them, their skills and capital, but also their children
and grandchildren.
If the Macedonian Government or the Macedonian people
so desire, it is possible to reverse this historic
flow so that ethnic Macedonians including those born
outside of Macedonia start to return to Macedonia
in significant numbers.
While some Macedonians in the diaspora in a position
to do so can simply vote with their feet and return
to Macedonia at any time, for many others there is
a need for Government encouragement and incentives
and the creation of a Macedonia favourable to economic
growth and political accountability.
Thus it is a matter of concern for many that when
the Republic gained its independence the Government
did not appeal to or encourage the diaspora to participate
in the development of Macedonia, as did for example
Croatia with its diaspora. This mistake has been
repeated in the current crises. To date, there has
been no request or initiative to encourage the diaspora
to assist Macedonia in its time of need. By excluding
the diaspora, Macedonia has been fighting with only
one arm and, dare it be said, half of its brain.
One reason the diaspora is ignored is because it
lacks formal economic clout. Informally Macedonians
send many millions of dollars back to their families
in Macedonia, and while this helps the families and
the economy, it does not bring commensurate political
voice.
So far, no one has harnessed in a formal way the
economic resources of the diaspora as a means of
economic development for Macedonia. It is a fact
that well-to-do and well meaning Macedonians in the
diaspora can invest almost anywhere in the world
except in the development of Macedonia.
This because there are no professional, investment-grade
funds and companies in which expatriate and other
ethnic Macedonians outside Macedonia can invest and
which use that capital for real business and development
projects in Macedonia with measurable outcomes for
the economy and real dividends for investors.
One example. Over the past nine years I have had
the privilege of being the only full time venture
capital journalist in Australia. Venture capital
is new equity capital for start-up and fast growing
businesses. Private equity, as it is also called,
is itself a new financial service industry and a
major world wide trend bringing huge economic development
including employment and exports to those countries
that are catching the wave.
Macedonia is not among them. The European Private
Equity and Venture Capital Association lists Greece,
Finland, Israel, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ireland and
even Iceland among its 28 member countries - but
it does not list Macedonia.
We need to change the view of Macedonia as a poor
nation always with its hand out to other countries,
and the attitude that the Macedonian people need
to go somewhere else to seek work and fortune. Let's
take back the responsibility for the economic development
of Macedonia. Let's take back responsibility for
the ethnic composition of Macedonia. Let's make Macedonia
a place where Macedonians want to go back to, not
run away from. In short, let's reclaim Macedonia.
Published in Australian Macedonian Weekly 7 August 2001
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